Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Jiangsu Maixinlin Aviation Science and Technology Corp. (688685.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Aerospace & DefenseSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$23.59 - $88.30$70.34
Multi-Stage$11.46 - $12.51$11.97
Blended Fair Value$41.16
Current Price$61.90
Upside-33.51%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS54.48%0.00%0.170.240.010.020.010.020.010.010.000.00
YoY Growth---29.37%2,587.36%-43.49%24.42%-34.08%163.39%-17.05%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.31%0.64%0.06%0.10%0.05%0.08%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)65.58
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)54.79
(=) Cash Retained (M)10.79
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)13.128.204.92
Cash Retained (M)10.7910.7910.79
(-) Cash Required (M)-13.12-8.20-4.92
(=) Excess Retained (M)-2.332.595.87
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)147.70147.70147.70
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.020.020.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.370.370.37
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.020.020.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.360.390.41
WACC / Discount Rate7.09%7.09%7.09%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$23.59$70.34$88.30
Upside / Downside-61.88%13.63%42.65%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)65.5869.8474.3879.2184.3689.8592.54
Payout Ratio83.55%84.84%86.13%87.42%88.71%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)54.7959.2564.0669.2574.8480.8685.60

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.09%7.09%7.09%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)54.8155.3355.85
Year 2 PV (M)54.8255.8656.91
Year 3 PV (M)54.8156.3957.99
Year 4 PV (M)54.8056.9059.07
Year 5 PV (M)54.7757.4260.16
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,418.221,486.731,557.85
Equity Value (M)1,692.231,768.621,847.83
Shares Outstanding (M)147.70147.70147.70
Fair Value$11.46$11.97$12.51
Upside / Downside-81.49%-80.65%-79.79%

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