Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Beijing Sun-Novo Pharmaceutical Research Co., Ltd. (688621.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$35.74 - $140.84$60.76
Multi-Stage$22.34 - $24.42$23.36
Blended Fair Value$42.06
Current Price$66.04
Upside-36.31%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS162.48%0.00%0.350.500.250.010.010.000.010.000.000.00
YoY Growth---31.27%105.76%2,062.44%16.46%249.85%-71.10%108.80%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.78%0.82%0.31%0.01%0.01%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)133.01
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)32.63
(=) Cash Retained (M)100.38
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)26.6016.639.98
Cash Retained (M)100.38100.38100.38
(-) Cash Required (M)-26.60-16.63-9.98
(=) Excess Retained (M)73.7883.7590.40
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)110.09110.09110.09
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.670.760.82
LTM Dividend per Share0.300.300.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.670.760.82
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.971.061.12
WACC / Discount Rate8.35%8.35%8.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$35.74$60.76$140.84
Upside / Downside-45.88%-8.00%113.26%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)133.01141.65150.86160.67171.11182.23187.70
Payout Ratio24.53%37.63%50.72%63.81%76.91%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)32.6353.3076.52102.53131.59164.01173.62

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.35%8.35%8.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)48.7349.1949.65
Year 2 PV (M)63.9565.1766.40
Year 3 PV (M)78.3580.6082.89
Year 4 PV (M)91.9495.4799.11
Year 5 PV (M)104.76109.82115.07
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,071.652,171.712,275.60
Equity Value (M)2,459.372,571.952,688.72
Shares Outstanding (M)110.09110.09110.09
Fair Value$22.34$23.36$24.42
Upside / Downside-66.17%-64.63%-63.02%

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