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Definitive Analysis

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Wuhan Keqian Biology Co.,Ltd (688526.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: BiotechnologySector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$32.57 - $184.78$59.55
Multi-Stage$19.63 - $21.45$20.52
Blended Fair Value$40.04
Current Price$17.72
Upside125.95%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS18.99%0.00%0.430.210.200.290.000.180.260.100.060.00
YoY Growth--110.72%3.86%-31.67%36,981.60%-99.57%-29.87%158.82%57.36%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.77%1.10%0.73%1.15%0.00%0.58%0.82%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)459.54
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)199.78
(=) Cash Retained (M)259.76
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)91.9157.4434.47
Cash Retained (M)259.76259.76259.76
(-) Cash Required (M)-91.91-57.44-34.47
(=) Excess Retained (M)167.85202.31225.29
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)471.79471.79471.79
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.360.430.48
LTM Dividend per Share0.420.420.42
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.360.430.48
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.780.850.90
WACC / Discount Rate8.02%8.02%8.02%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$32.57$59.55$184.78
Upside / Downside83.80%236.07%942.77%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)459.54489.41521.22555.10591.18629.61648.50
Payout Ratio43.47%52.78%62.08%71.39%80.69%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)199.78258.31323.60396.29477.06566.65599.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.02%8.02%8.02%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)236.88239.12241.37
Year 2 PV (M)272.13277.31282.54
Year 3 PV (M)305.60314.37323.31
Year 4 PV (M)337.36350.34363.68
Year 5 PV (M)367.47385.22403.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,742.778,116.758,505.04
Equity Value (M)9,262.219,683.1110,119.60
Shares Outstanding (M)471.79471.79471.79
Fair Value$19.63$20.52$21.45
Upside / Downside10.79%15.82%21.05%

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