Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Pan Asian Microvent Tech (Jiangsu) Corporation (688386.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$41.51 - $116.00$64.48
Multi-Stage$27.51 - $30.09$28.77
Blended Fair Value$46.62
Current Price$80.90
Upside-42.37%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS11.20%0.00%0.550.550.080.520.330.320.190.090.000.00
YoY Growth---0.36%611.88%-85.17%58.85%1.79%72.87%111.70%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.65%2.17%0.22%1.52%1.06%0.91%0.53%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)123.25
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)10.90
(=) Cash Retained (M)112.36
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)24.6515.419.24
Cash Retained (M)112.36112.36112.36
(-) Cash Required (M)-24.65-15.41-9.24
(=) Excess Retained (M)87.7096.95103.11
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)72.4872.4872.48
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.211.341.42
LTM Dividend per Share0.150.150.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.211.341.42
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.361.491.57
WACC / Discount Rate8.96%8.96%8.96%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$41.51$64.48$116.00
Upside / Downside-48.69%-20.30%43.39%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)123.25131.26139.80148.88158.56168.87173.93
Payout Ratio8.84%25.07%41.30%57.54%73.77%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)10.9032.9157.7485.66116.97151.98160.89

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.96%8.96%8.96%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)29.9230.2130.49
Year 2 PV (M)47.7348.6449.56
Year 3 PV (M)64.3866.2268.11
Year 4 PV (M)79.9282.9986.15
Year 5 PV (M)94.4198.97103.70
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,677.561,758.581,842.71
Equity Value (M)1,993.912,085.612,180.72
Shares Outstanding (M)72.4872.4872.48
Fair Value$27.51$28.77$30.09
Upside / Downside-66.00%-64.43%-62.81%

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