Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Nanjing Develop Advanced Manufacturing Co., Ltd. (688377.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$13.61 - $36.15$20.82
Multi-Stage$9.39 - $10.25$9.81
Blended Fair Value$15.32
Current Price$38.48
Upside-60.19%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS50.99%15.77%0.260.190.020.170.030.030.040.060.060.06
YoY Growth--39.17%745.77%-86.48%553.71%-24.56%-24.31%-22.70%-6.34%-0.19%0.74%
Dividend Yield--1.32%1.05%0.07%0.65%0.16%0.08%0.11%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)111.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)34.45
(=) Cash Retained (M)77.05
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)22.3013.948.36
Cash Retained (M)77.0577.0577.05
(-) Cash Required (M)-22.30-13.94-8.36
(=) Excess Retained (M)54.7563.1168.69
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)192.30192.30192.30
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.280.330.36
LTM Dividend per Share0.180.180.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.280.330.36
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.460.510.54
WACC / Discount Rate9.09%9.09%9.09%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$13.61$20.82$36.15
Upside / Downside-64.62%-45.89%-6.05%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)111.50118.75126.47134.69143.44152.77157.35
Payout Ratio30.90%42.72%54.54%66.36%78.18%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)34.4550.7368.9789.38112.14137.49145.55

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.09%9.09%9.09%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)46.0646.5046.94
Year 2 PV (M)56.8757.9559.05
Year 3 PV (M)66.9268.8470.79
Year 4 PV (M)76.2479.1782.19
Year 5 PV (M)84.8788.9793.23
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,474.131,545.331,619.26
Equity Value (M)1,805.091,886.761,971.45
Shares Outstanding (M)192.30192.30192.30
Fair Value$9.39$9.81$10.25
Upside / Downside-75.61%-74.50%-73.36%

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