Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Luoyang Jianlong Micro-nano New Material Co., Ltd (688357.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$24.00 - $97.82$41.11
Multi-Stage$15.15 - $16.55$15.84
Blended Fair Value$28.48
Current Price$39.88
Upside-28.60%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS48.40%12.48%0.590.550.820.380.300.080.130.150.100.10
YoY Growth--7.75%-33.41%119.78%23.66%269.03%-35.44%-16.21%52.23%0.05%-45.32%
Dividend Yield--2.29%1.68%1.47%0.51%0.70%0.31%0.51%0.60%0.40%0.40%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)86.62
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)35.13
(=) Cash Retained (M)51.48
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)17.3210.836.50
Cash Retained (M)51.4851.4851.48
(-) Cash Required (M)-17.32-10.83-6.50
(=) Excess Retained (M)34.1640.6644.99
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)108.29108.29108.29
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.320.380.42
LTM Dividend per Share0.320.320.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.320.380.42
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.640.700.74
WACC / Discount Rate8.31%8.31%8.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$24.00$41.11$97.82
Upside / Downside-39.82%3.09%145.30%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)86.6292.2598.24104.63111.43118.67122.23
Payout Ratio40.56%50.45%60.34%70.23%80.11%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)35.1346.5459.2873.4889.27106.80113.06

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.31%8.31%8.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)42.5642.9743.37
Year 2 PV (M)49.5850.5351.48
Year 3 PV (M)56.2157.8259.47
Year 4 PV (M)62.4664.8667.33
Year 5 PV (M)68.3471.6575.07
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,361.741,427.511,495.80
Equity Value (M)1,640.901,715.341,792.52
Shares Outstanding (M)108.29108.29108.29
Fair Value$15.15$15.84$16.55
Upside / Downside-62.00%-60.28%-58.49%

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