Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Jiangsu Cai Qin Technology Co., Ltd (688182.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SemiconductorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.43 - $0.54$0.49
Multi-Stage$0.78 - $0.87$0.83
Blended Fair Value$0.66
Current Price$28.45
Upside-97.70%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS-36.68%0.00%0.060.070.080.000.600.580.010.040.000.00
YoY Growth---16.07%-12.50%5,894.21%-99.78%4.22%8,674.60%-82.79%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.22%0.40%0.48%0.01%3.10%2.98%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)93.99
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)32.30
(=) Cash Retained (M)61.69
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)18.8011.757.05
Cash Retained (M)61.6961.6961.69
(-) Cash Required (M)-18.80-11.75-7.05
(=) Excess Retained (M)42.8949.9454.64
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)397.62397.62397.62
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.110.130.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.080.080.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.110.130.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.190.210.22
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate-23.84%-22.84%-21.84%
Fair Value$0.43$0.49$0.54
Upside / Downside-98.50%-98.29%-98.11%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)93.9972.5255.9643.1833.3225.7126.48
Payout Ratio34.37%45.49%56.62%67.75%78.87%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)32.3032.9931.6929.2526.2823.1424.50

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate-23.84%-22.84%-21.84%
Year 1 PV (M)29.6130.0030.38
Year 2 PV (M)25.5226.1926.87
Year 3 PV (M)21.1421.9822.85
Year 4 PV (M)17.0417.9518.90
Year 5 PV (M)13.4714.3715.33
PV of Terminal Value (M)203.84217.58232.04
Equity Value (M)310.61328.07346.38
Shares Outstanding (M)397.62397.62397.62
Fair Value$0.78$0.83$0.87
Upside / Downside-97.25%-97.10%-96.94%

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