Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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ArcSoft Corporation Limited (688088.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Information Technology ServicesSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.35 - $6.41$5.34
Multi-Stage$7.90 - $8.68$8.29
Blended Fair Value$6.81
Current Price$59.30
Upside-88.51%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%0.360.120.200.260.100.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--195.68%-37.50%-23.61%158.70%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.78%0.37%0.55%0.89%0.20%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)228.63
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)100.18
(=) Cash Retained (M)128.45
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)45.7328.5817.15
Cash Retained (M)128.45128.45128.45
(-) Cash Required (M)-45.73-28.58-17.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)82.7299.87111.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)409.04409.04409.04
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.200.240.27
LTM Dividend per Share0.240.240.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.200.240.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.450.490.52
WACC / Discount Rate8.07%8.07%8.07%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$4.35$5.34$6.41
Upside / Downside-92.66%-91.00%-89.20%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)228.63226.35224.08221.84219.62217.43223.95
Payout Ratio43.82%53.05%62.29%71.53%80.76%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)100.18120.09139.58158.68177.38195.69207.15

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.07%8.07%8.07%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)110.00111.12112.24
Year 2 PV (M)117.11119.51121.94
Year 3 PV (M)121.94125.71129.56
Year 4 PV (M)124.86130.03135.36
Year 5 PV (M)126.17132.74139.58
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,633.422,770.552,913.33
Equity Value (M)3,233.493,389.663,552.01
Shares Outstanding (M)409.04409.04409.04
Fair Value$7.90$8.29$8.68
Upside / Downside-86.67%-86.03%-85.36%

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