Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shandong Intco Recycling Resources Co., Ltd. (688087.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Waste ManagementSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$308.69 - $363.69$340.83
Multi-Stage$114.41 - $125.50$119.85
Blended Fair Value$230.34
Current Price$26.41
Upside772.17%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS41.08%0.00%0.490.280.170.020.040.090.060.030.000.00
YoY Growth--76.79%60.10%910.18%-60.36%-50.70%41.27%87.77%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.78%1.11%0.58%0.04%0.08%0.16%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)339.02
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)57.18
(=) Cash Retained (M)281.84
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)67.8042.3825.43
Cash Retained (M)281.84281.84281.84
(-) Cash Required (M)-67.80-42.38-25.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)214.04239.46256.41
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)185.38185.38185.38
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.151.291.38
LTM Dividend per Share0.310.310.31
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.151.291.38
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.461.601.69
WACC / Discount Rate4.67%4.67%4.67%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$308.69$340.83$363.69
Upside / Downside1,068.84%1,190.53%1,277.09%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)339.02361.05384.52409.52436.13464.48478.42
Payout Ratio16.87%31.49%46.12%60.75%75.37%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)57.18113.71177.34248.77328.73418.04442.54

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.67%4.67%4.67%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)107.62108.64109.66
Year 2 PV (M)158.85161.88164.93
Year 3 PV (M)210.89216.95223.12
Year 4 PV (M)263.75273.90284.33
Year 5 PV (M)317.44332.77348.69
PV of Terminal Value (M)20,150.8021,124.0922,134.63
Equity Value (M)21,209.3522,218.2223,265.36
Shares Outstanding (M)185.38185.38185.38
Fair Value$114.41$119.85$125.50
Upside / Downside333.20%353.80%375.19%

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