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Definitive Analysis

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China Railway Signal & Communication Corporation Limited (688009.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RailroadsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.03 - $4.69$3.80
Multi-Stage$6.99 - $7.69$7.34
Blended Fair Value$5.57
Current Price$5.38
Upside3.52%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.77%0.00%0.230.190.170.210.200.220.160.080.090.31
YoY Growth--18.69%13.71%-19.49%5.58%-9.41%35.29%96.60%-6.80%-71.47%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.10%3.45%3.15%4.77%3.55%3.53%1.34%0.68%0.73%2.56%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,420.24
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,883.86
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,536.38
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)684.05427.53256.52
Cash Retained (M)1,536.381,536.381,536.38
(-) Cash Required (M)-684.05-427.53-256.52
(=) Excess Retained (M)852.341,108.851,279.87
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)10,535.6710,535.6710,535.67
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.110.12
LTM Dividend per Share0.180.180.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.110.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.260.280.30
WACC / Discount Rate6.40%6.40%6.40%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$3.03$3.80$4.69
Upside / Downside-43.66%-29.34%-12.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,420.243,386.043,352.183,318.663,285.473,252.613,350.19
Payout Ratio55.08%62.06%69.05%76.03%83.02%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,883.862,101.502,314.602,523.242,727.462,927.353,098.93

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.40%6.40%6.40%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)1,955.201,975.151,995.10
Year 2 PV (M)2,003.552,044.642,086.16
Year 3 PV (M)2,032.092,094.932,159.05
Year 4 PV (M)2,043.642,128.342,215.64
Year 5 PV (M)2,040.712,146.982,257.62
PV of Terminal Value (M)63,594.5766,906.0970,354.14
Equity Value (M)73,669.7677,296.1381,067.73
Shares Outstanding (M)10,535.6710,535.6710,535.67
Fair Value$6.99$7.34$7.69
Upside / Downside29.97%36.37%43.02%

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