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Definitive Analysis

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Nihon Trim Co., Ltd. (6788.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - Pollution & Treatment ControlsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6,470.67 - $17,724.15$9,991.52
Multi-Stage$4,802.72 - $5,255.19$5,024.80
Blended Fair Value$7,508.16
Current Price$4,345.00
Upside72.80%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS7.76%4.91%89.74126.6859.9960.8071.9961.7663.5065.1765.7955.28
YoY Growth---29.16%111.16%-1.32%-15.55%16.56%-2.74%-2.57%-0.94%19.01%-0.55%
Dividend Yield--2.07%3.66%1.73%2.41%1.87%2.01%1.20%1.36%1.44%0.78%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,074.49
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)343.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,731.09
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)414.90259.31155.59
Cash Retained (M)1,731.091,731.091,731.09
(-) Cash Required (M)-414.90-259.31-155.59
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,316.191,471.781,575.50
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7.667.667.66
(=) Excess Retained per Share171.76192.06205.60
LTM Dividend per Share44.8144.8144.81
(+) Excess Retained per Share171.76192.06205.60
(=) Adjusted Dividend216.57236.88250.41
WACC / Discount Rate8.37%8.37%8.37%
Growth Rate4.87%5.87%6.87%
Fair Value$6,470.67$9,991.52$17,724.15
Upside / Downside48.92%129.95%307.92%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,074.492,196.162,324.962,461.322,605.682,758.502,841.26
Payout Ratio16.55%31.24%45.93%60.62%75.31%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)343.40686.141,067.901,492.091,962.352,482.652,628.16

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.37%8.37%8.37%
Growth Rate4.87%5.87%6.87%
Year 1 PV (M)627.14633.12639.10
Year 2 PV (M)892.14909.23926.49
Year 3 PV (M)1,139.311,172.221,205.75
Year 4 PV (M)1,369.541,422.541,477.05
Year 5 PV (M)1,583.671,660.631,740.56
PV of Terminal Value (M)31,191.3232,707.1634,281.38
Equity Value (M)36,803.1138,504.9040,270.33
Shares Outstanding (M)7.667.667.66
Fair Value$4,802.72$5,024.80$5,255.19
Upside / Downside10.53%15.65%20.95%

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