Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Daifuku Co., Ltd. (6383.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$18,095.16 - $44,304.16$41,519.48
Multi-Stage$6,449.67 - $7,059.30$6,748.89
Blended Fair Value$24,134.18
Current Price$4,743.00
Upside408.84%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS9.05%22.93%45.3636.3831.0927.8224.5629.4124.4717.3710.117.25
YoY Growth--24.68%16.99%11.77%13.30%-16.49%20.18%40.82%71.84%39.44%25.97%
Dividend Yield--1.22%1.21%1.06%1.08%0.73%0.94%1.19%1.07%0.90%1.20%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)85,843.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)31,219.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)54,624.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)17,168.6010,730.386,438.23
Cash Retained (M)54,624.0054,624.0054,624.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-17,168.60-10,730.38-6,438.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)37,455.4043,893.6348,185.78
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)385.34385.34385.34
(=) Excess Retained per Share97.20113.91125.05
LTM Dividend per Share81.0281.0281.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share97.20113.91125.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend178.22194.93206.07
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$18,095.16$41,519.48$44,304.16
Upside / Downside281.51%775.38%834.10%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)85,843.0091,422.8097,365.28103,694.02110,434.13117,612.35121,140.72
Payout Ratio36.37%47.09%57.82%68.55%79.27%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)31,219.0043,054.6956,297.1271,079.1687,545.01105,851.11112,055.17

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)40,032.6640,412.1240,791.57
Year 2 PV (M)48,671.4349,598.4850,534.28
Year 3 PV (M)57,137.8958,778.1160,449.43
Year 4 PV (M)65,434.5767,951.0070,539.32
Year 5 PV (M)73,563.9877,117.1580,806.30
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,200,455.732,306,738.572,417,089.10
Equity Value (M)2,485,296.252,600,595.422,720,210.00
Shares Outstanding (M)385.34385.34385.34
Fair Value$6,449.67$6,748.89$7,059.30
Upside / Downside35.98%42.29%48.84%

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