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Definitive Analysis

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Zhou Liu Fu Jewellery Co., Ltd. (6168.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Luxury GoodsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$49.66 - $147.09$78.48
Multi-Stage$175.33 - $193.78$184.37
Blended Fair Value$131.42
Current Price$44.20
Upside197.34%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%1.730.800.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.04
YoY Growth--114.63%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--6.17%2.90%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.15%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)786.54
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)98.47
(=) Cash Retained (M)688.08
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)157.3198.3258.99
Cash Retained (M)688.08688.08688.08
(-) Cash Required (M)-157.31-98.32-58.99
(=) Excess Retained (M)530.77589.76629.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)373.53373.53373.53
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.421.581.68
LTM Dividend per Share0.260.260.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.421.581.68
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.681.841.95
WACC / Discount Rate1.32%1.32%1.32%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$49.66$78.48$147.09
Upside / Downside12.36%77.56%232.78%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)786.54778.68770.89763.18755.55747.99770.43
Payout Ratio12.52%28.02%43.51%59.01%74.50%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)98.47218.15335.42450.33562.91673.19712.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate1.32%1.32%1.32%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)213.12215.30217.47
Year 2 PV (M)320.15326.71333.35
Year 3 PV (M)419.92432.91446.16
Year 4 PV (M)512.80534.06555.96
Year 5 PV (M)599.14630.34662.82
PV of Terminal Value (M)63,425.6866,728.4070,167.30
Equity Value (M)65,490.8168,867.7272,383.06
Shares Outstanding (M)373.53373.53373.53
Fair Value$175.33$184.37$193.78
Upside / Downside296.67%317.12%338.42%

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