Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Tsugami Corporation (6101.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Tools & AccessoriesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$27,583.80 - $55,614.69$52,119.11
Multi-Stage$8,475.15 - $9,282.62$8,871.44
Blended Fair Value$30,495.28
Current Price$2,384.00
Upside1,179.16%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS14.31%10.86%51.3048.8145.0133.7926.2426.2820.0920.6621.8523.07
YoY Growth--5.11%8.45%33.21%28.74%-0.16%30.81%-2.76%-5.42%-5.31%26.10%
Dividend Yield--2.76%3.11%3.26%3.00%1.54%2.92%2.10%2.10%2.71%5.98%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)13,235.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,803.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)10,432.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,647.001,654.38992.63
Cash Retained (M)10,432.0010,432.0010,432.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,647.00-1,654.38-992.63
(=) Excess Retained (M)7,785.008,777.639,439.38
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)47.3347.3347.33
(=) Excess Retained per Share164.49185.47199.45
LTM Dividend per Share59.2359.2359.23
(+) Excess Retained per Share164.49185.47199.45
(=) Adjusted Dividend223.72244.69258.67
WACC / Discount Rate6.36%6.36%6.36%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$27,583.80$52,119.11$55,614.69
Upside / Downside1,057.04%2,086.20%2,232.83%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)13,235.0014,095.2815,011.4715,987.2117,026.3818,133.1018,677.09
Payout Ratio21.18%34.94%48.71%62.47%76.24%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,803.004,925.317,311.679,987.4512,980.1916,319.7917,276.31

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.36%6.36%6.36%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)4,587.494,630.984,674.46
Year 2 PV (M)6,343.096,463.916,585.87
Year 3 PV (M)8,070.158,301.818,537.87
Year 4 PV (M)9,769.0010,144.6910,531.11
Year 5 PV (M)11,440.0011,992.5512,566.26
PV of Terminal Value (M)360,898.67378,330.21396,428.90
Equity Value (M)401,108.40419,864.15439,324.46
Shares Outstanding (M)47.3347.3347.33
Fair Value$8,475.15$8,871.44$9,282.62
Upside / Downside255.50%272.12%289.37%

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