Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Ningbo Dechang Electrical Machinery Made Co., Ltd. (605555.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.25 - $9.63$7.82
Multi-Stage$14.00 - $15.41$14.69
Blended Fair Value$11.26
Current Price$17.03
Upside-33.90%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS-21.28%0.00%0.340.330.170.020.121.120.070.050.000.00
YoY Growth--1.38%100.00%789.04%-84.36%-89.28%1,562.93%27.14%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.82%2.25%1.39%0.17%0.73%6.80%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)271.22
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)133.22
(=) Cash Retained (M)138.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)54.2433.9020.34
Cash Retained (M)138.00138.00138.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-54.24-33.90-20.34
(=) Excess Retained (M)83.75104.10117.66
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)398.31398.31398.31
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.210.260.30
LTM Dividend per Share0.330.330.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.210.260.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.540.600.63
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$6.25$7.82$9.63
Upside / Downside-63.29%-54.06%-43.44%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)271.22268.50265.82263.16260.53257.92265.66
Payout Ratio49.12%57.30%65.47%73.65%81.82%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)133.22153.84174.04193.81213.17232.13245.74

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)142.94144.40145.86
Year 2 PV (M)150.25153.33156.44
Year 3 PV (M)155.46160.27165.18
Year 4 PV (M)158.88165.46172.25
Year 5 PV (M)160.75169.12177.83
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,808.305,058.685,319.38
Equity Value (M)5,576.575,851.256,136.94
Shares Outstanding (M)398.31398.31398.31
Fair Value$14.00$14.69$15.41
Upside / Downside-17.79%-13.74%-9.53%

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