Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Forest Packaging Group Co.,Ltd. (605500.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaging & ContainersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.99 - $3.09$2.50
Multi-Stage$4.78 - $5.25$5.01
Blended Fair Value$3.75
Current Price$9.13
Upside-58.90%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS2.15%0.00%0.180.110.210.170.110.160.170.190.060.00
YoY Growth--64.52%-47.95%22.21%52.02%-30.10%-7.75%-7.43%228.74%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.52%1.50%2.77%2.15%1.17%1.20%1.30%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)88.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)78.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)9.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)17.6411.036.62
Cash Retained (M)9.509.509.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-17.64-11.03-6.62
(=) Excess Retained (M)-8.14-1.532.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)418.24418.24418.24
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.020.000.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.190.190.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.020.000.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.170.180.20
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$1.99$2.50$3.09
Upside / Downside-78.23%-72.65%-66.18%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)88.2087.3286.4585.5884.7383.8886.40
Payout Ratio89.23%89.38%89.54%89.69%89.85%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)78.7078.0577.4076.7676.1275.4979.92

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)72.6773.4174.15
Year 2 PV (M)67.1068.4869.87
Year 3 PV (M)61.9663.8865.83
Year 4 PV (M)57.2159.5862.03
Year 5 PV (M)52.8355.5858.44
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,685.871,773.651,865.06
Equity Value (M)1,997.642,094.582,195.38
Shares Outstanding (M)418.24418.24418.24
Fair Value$4.78$5.01$5.25
Upside / Downside-47.69%-45.15%-42.51%

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