Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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China Tobacco International (HK) Company Limited (6055.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: TobaccoSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$42.29 - $84.06$58.63
Multi-Stage$31.69 - $34.60$33.12
Blended Fair Value$45.88
Current Price$30.75
Upside49.19%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.00%0.00%0.470.200.170.130.220.280.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--135.00%17.65%26.58%-37.83%-22.56%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.98%2.05%1.46%0.86%1.45%1.45%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,701.91
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)325.09
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,376.82
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)340.38212.74127.64
Cash Retained (M)1,376.821,376.821,376.82
(-) Cash Required (M)-340.38-212.74-127.64
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,036.441,164.081,249.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)691.68691.68691.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.501.681.81
LTM Dividend per Share0.470.470.47
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.501.681.81
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.972.152.28
WACC / Discount Rate10.41%10.41%10.41%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$42.29$58.63$84.06
Upside / Downside37.53%90.68%173.37%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,701.911,812.531,930.352,055.822,189.452,331.762,401.72
Payout Ratio19.10%33.28%47.46%61.64%75.82%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)325.09603.23916.161,267.221,660.052,098.592,221.59

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.41%10.41%10.41%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)541.22546.35551.48
Year 2 PV (M)737.49751.54765.72
Year 3 PV (M)915.23941.50968.27
Year 4 PV (M)1,075.691,117.061,159.61
Year 5 PV (M)1,220.081,279.011,340.19
PV of Terminal Value (M)17,428.9118,270.7319,144.77
Equity Value (M)21,918.6222,906.1923,930.05
Shares Outstanding (M)691.68691.68691.68
Fair Value$31.69$33.12$34.60
Upside / Downside3.05%7.70%12.51%

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