Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Yunnan Shennong Agricultural Industry Group Co.,LTD. (605296.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural Farm ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$27.35 - $65.06$40.39
Multi-Stage$18.82 - $20.59$19.69
Blended Fair Value$30.04
Current Price$30.25
Upside-0.70%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-12.23%-0.31%0.050.260.190.200.220.090.190.050.050.02
YoY Growth---82.37%37.04%-5.26%-7.71%146.56%-52.87%271.88%1.86%102.07%-48.41%
Dividend Yield--0.16%0.68%0.75%0.71%0.45%0.18%0.00%0.10%0.10%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)668.14
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)13.54
(=) Cash Retained (M)654.59
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)133.6383.5250.11
Cash Retained (M)654.59654.59654.59
(-) Cash Required (M)-133.63-83.52-50.11
(=) Excess Retained (M)520.97571.08604.48
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)520.35520.35520.35
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.001.101.16
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.001.101.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.031.121.19
WACC / Discount Rate9.46%9.46%9.46%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$27.35$40.39$65.06
Upside / Downside-9.59%33.52%115.06%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)668.14711.56757.82807.07859.53915.40942.87
Payout Ratio2.03%19.62%37.22%54.81%72.41%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)13.54139.62282.03442.36622.35823.86872.15

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.46%9.46%9.46%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)126.35127.55128.75
Year 2 PV (M)230.98235.38239.82
Year 3 PV (M)327.86337.27346.86
Year 4 PV (M)417.43433.48449.99
Year 5 PV (M)500.08524.24549.32
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,191.708,587.378,998.17
Equity Value (M)9,794.4110,245.2810,712.91
Shares Outstanding (M)520.35520.35520.35
Fair Value$18.82$19.69$20.59
Upside / Downside-37.78%-34.91%-31.94%

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