Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shanghai QiFan Cable Co., Ltd (605222.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.26 - $5.00$4.07
Multi-Stage$7.28 - $8.00$7.63
Blended Fair Value$5.85
Current Price$19.10
Upside-69.36%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS47.20%0.00%0.520.110.250.330.120.080.340.040.040.00
YoY Growth--384.46%-56.74%-23.92%168.97%61.15%-78.03%795.49%-6.23%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.38%0.61%1.08%1.60%0.58%0.28%1.29%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)148.74
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)103.77
(=) Cash Retained (M)44.97
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)29.7518.5911.16
Cash Retained (M)44.9744.9744.97
(-) Cash Required (M)-29.75-18.59-11.16
(=) Excess Retained (M)15.2226.3833.82
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)413.37413.37413.37
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.060.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.250.250.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.060.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.290.310.33
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$3.26$4.07$5.00
Upside / Downside-82.94%-78.69%-73.83%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)148.74147.25145.78144.32142.88141.45145.69
Payout Ratio69.76%73.81%77.86%81.91%85.95%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)103.77108.69113.50118.21122.81127.30134.77

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)100.88101.90102.93
Year 2 PV (M)97.7799.77101.80
Year 3 PV (M)94.5097.42100.41
Year 4 PV (M)91.1294.9098.79
Year 5 PV (M)87.6792.2396.99
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,537.362,669.492,807.06
Equity Value (M)3,009.303,155.723,307.98
Shares Outstanding (M)413.37413.37413.37
Fair Value$7.28$7.63$8.00
Upside / Downside-61.89%-60.03%-58.10%

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