Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Xinjiang Hongtong Natural Gas Co., Ltd. (605169.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated GasSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.39 - $5.27$4.26
Multi-Stage$8.16 - $8.96$8.55
Blended Fair Value$6.41
Current Price$14.05
Upside-54.40%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-16.19%0.00%0.230.200.410.370.020.560.260.610.010.00
YoY Growth--13.36%-50.63%11.51%1,675.75%-96.27%111.95%-56.72%3,973.84%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.33%2.25%3.72%3.11%0.14%3.26%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)100.62
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)91.62
(=) Cash Retained (M)9.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)20.1212.587.55
Cash Retained (M)9.009.009.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-20.12-12.58-7.55
(=) Excess Retained (M)-11.13-3.581.45
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)279.15279.15279.15
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.04-0.010.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.330.330.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.04-0.010.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.290.320.33
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$3.39$4.26$5.27
Upside / Downside-75.84%-69.66%-62.48%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)100.6299.6198.6297.6396.6695.6998.56
Payout Ratio91.06%90.85%90.64%90.42%90.21%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)91.6290.5089.3888.2887.1986.1291.17

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)84.2585.1185.97
Year 2 PV (M)77.4879.0680.67
Year 3 PV (M)71.2473.4575.69
Year 4 PV (M)65.5168.2371.02
Year 5 PV (M)60.2463.3866.64
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,917.862,017.732,121.71
Equity Value (M)2,276.582,386.952,501.71
Shares Outstanding (M)279.15279.15279.15
Fair Value$8.16$8.55$8.96
Upside / Downside-41.96%-39.14%-36.21%

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