Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Xiamen Leading Optics Co., Ltd. (605118.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.44 - $6.30$5.36
Multi-Stage$6.95 - $7.61$7.28
Blended Fair Value$6.32
Current Price$29.05
Upside-78.25%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS157.92%0.00%0.340.120.120.150.000.000.000.110.070.00
YoY Growth--183.21%0.48%-19.57%6,644.10%-26.06%17.08%-97.59%52.04%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.64%0.61%0.81%1.13%0.01%0.02%0.02%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)275.57
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)127.57
(=) Cash Retained (M)147.99
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)55.1134.4520.67
Cash Retained (M)147.99147.99147.99
(-) Cash Required (M)-55.11-34.45-20.67
(=) Excess Retained (M)92.88113.55127.33
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)407.77407.77407.77
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.230.280.31
LTM Dividend per Share0.310.310.31
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.230.280.31
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.540.590.63
WACC / Discount Rate9.92%9.92%9.92%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$4.44$5.36$6.30
Upside / Downside-84.70%-81.55%-78.31%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)275.57272.81270.08267.38264.71262.06269.92
Payout Ratio46.29%55.04%63.78%72.52%81.26%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)127.57150.14172.25193.90215.10235.85249.68

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.92%9.92%9.92%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)135.21136.59137.97
Year 2 PV (M)139.69142.56145.45
Year 3 PV (M)141.61145.99150.46
Year 4 PV (M)141.47147.33153.37
Year 5 PV (M)139.69146.96154.54
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,136.062,247.292,363.11
Equity Value (M)2,833.722,966.713,104.89
Shares Outstanding (M)407.77407.77407.77
Fair Value$6.95$7.28$7.61
Upside / Downside-76.08%-74.96%-73.79%

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