Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Aurisco Pharmaceutical Co.,Ltd. (605116.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: BiotechnologySector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.66 - $12.90$10.68
Multi-Stage$16.29 - $17.92$17.09
Blended Fair Value$13.88
Current Price$22.43
Upside-38.10%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%0.240.170.130.120.090.000.090.150.190.00
YoY Growth--41.51%28.02%8.76%33.67%0.00%-100.00%-38.34%-23.09%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.10%0.75%0.49%0.51%0.59%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)424.54
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)125.18
(=) Cash Retained (M)299.35
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)84.9153.0731.84
Cash Retained (M)299.35299.35299.35
(-) Cash Required (M)-84.91-53.07-31.84
(=) Excess Retained (M)214.45246.29267.51
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)399.21399.21399.21
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.540.620.67
LTM Dividend per Share0.310.310.31
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.540.620.67
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.850.930.98
WACC / Discount Rate7.62%7.62%7.62%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$8.66$10.68$12.90
Upside / Downside-61.38%-52.38%-42.48%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)424.54420.29416.09411.93407.81403.73415.84
Payout Ratio29.49%41.59%53.69%65.79%77.90%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)125.18174.80223.41271.03317.67363.36384.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.62%7.62%7.62%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)160.77162.42164.06
Year 2 PV (M)189.00192.87196.79
Year 3 PV (M)210.89217.41224.06
Year 4 PV (M)227.35236.77246.49
Year 5 PV (M)239.18251.64264.61
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,475.115,760.216,057.07
Equity Value (M)6,502.306,821.327,153.07
Shares Outstanding (M)399.21399.21399.21
Fair Value$16.29$17.09$17.92
Upside / Downside-27.38%-23.82%-20.12%

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