Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Xiamen Solex High-tech Industries Co., Ltd. (603992.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.22 - $19.20$13.87
Multi-Stage$8.07 - $8.80$8.43
Blended Fair Value$11.15
Current Price$31.14
Upside-64.20%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS24.46%0.00%0.440.450.120.190.160.150.081.170.010.01
YoY Growth---2.75%290.32%-38.76%17.94%8.91%87.60%-93.25%8,022.71%27.32%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.96%2.39%0.69%1.22%0.96%0.83%0.40%5.98%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)284.34
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)114.43
(=) Cash Retained (M)169.92
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)56.8735.5421.33
Cash Retained (M)169.92169.92169.92
(-) Cash Required (M)-56.87-35.54-21.33
(=) Excess Retained (M)113.05134.37148.59
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)438.50438.50438.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.260.310.34
LTM Dividend per Share0.260.260.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.260.310.34
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.520.570.60
WACC / Discount Rate10.86%10.86%10.86%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$10.22$13.87$19.20
Upside / Downside-67.20%-55.47%-38.33%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)284.34302.83322.51343.47365.80389.57401.26
Payout Ratio40.24%50.19%60.15%70.10%80.05%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)114.43152.00193.98240.76292.82350.62371.17

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.86%10.86%10.86%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)135.83137.11138.40
Year 2 PV (M)154.89157.84160.82
Year 3 PV (M)171.79176.72181.75
Year 4 PV (M)186.70193.88201.27
Year 5 PV (M)199.77209.41219.43
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,691.352,821.342,956.31
Equity Value (M)3,540.323,696.313,857.97
Shares Outstanding (M)438.50438.50438.50
Fair Value$8.07$8.43$8.80
Upside / Downside-74.07%-72.93%-71.75%

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