Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhejiang Shouxiangu Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (603896.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: BiotechnologySector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$21.67 - $113.42$39.06
Multi-Stage$13.18 - $14.40$13.78
Blended Fair Value$26.42
Current Price$20.43
Upside29.33%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS19.93%5.66%0.420.460.310.240.250.170.140.090.100.13
YoY Growth---10.54%51.80%28.65%-4.18%48.19%16.71%52.12%-3.38%-24.97%-45.70%
Dividend Yield--2.09%1.82%0.61%0.53%0.91%0.79%0.44%0.27%0.76%1.02%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)132.39
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)55.93
(=) Cash Retained (M)76.46
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)26.4816.559.93
Cash Retained (M)76.4676.4676.46
(-) Cash Required (M)-26.48-16.55-9.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)49.9859.9166.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)199.77199.77199.77
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.250.300.33
LTM Dividend per Share0.280.280.28
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.250.300.33
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.530.580.61
WACC / Discount Rate8.08%8.08%8.08%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$21.67$39.06$113.42
Upside / Downside6.07%91.19%455.14%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)132.39140.99150.16159.92170.31181.38186.82
Payout Ratio42.25%51.80%61.35%70.90%80.45%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)55.9373.0392.12113.38137.01163.24172.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.08%8.08%8.08%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)66.9367.5768.20
Year 2 PV (M)77.3878.8680.34
Year 3 PV (M)87.2989.8092.35
Year 4 PV (M)96.69100.41104.23
Year 5 PV (M)105.58110.68115.98
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,199.802,306.062,416.37
Equity Value (M)2,633.692,753.372,877.48
Shares Outstanding (M)199.77199.77199.77
Fair Value$13.18$13.78$14.40
Upside / Downside-35.47%-32.54%-29.49%

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