Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Rockchip Electronics Co., Ltd. (603893.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SemiconductorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$45.49 - $96.66$64.62
Multi-Stage$32.85 - $35.90$34.35
Blended Fair Value$49.48
Current Price$225.55
Upside-78.06%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%-2.06%0.200.250.840.490.340.000.050.090.000.00
YoY Growth---19.93%-70.55%70.23%44.43%0.00%-100.00%-46.34%0.00%-100.00%-98.15%
Dividend Yield--0.11%0.49%0.93%0.55%0.53%0.00%0.35%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,022.73
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)104.76
(=) Cash Retained (M)917.97
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)204.55127.8476.70
Cash Retained (M)917.97917.97917.97
(-) Cash Required (M)-204.55-127.84-76.70
(=) Excess Retained (M)713.43790.13841.27
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)422.69422.69422.69
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.691.871.99
LTM Dividend per Share0.250.250.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.691.871.99
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.942.122.24
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$45.49$64.62$96.66
Upside / Downside-79.83%-71.35%-57.15%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,022.731,089.211,160.011,235.411,315.711,401.231,443.27
Payout Ratio10.24%26.19%42.15%58.10%74.05%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)104.76285.31488.89717.74974.261,261.111,335.02

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)256.96259.40261.83
Year 2 PV (M)396.57404.12411.75
Year 3 PV (M)524.35539.40554.74
Year 4 PV (M)641.04665.70691.05
Year 5 PV (M)747.34783.43820.91
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,319.4011,866.1312,433.79
Equity Value (M)13,885.6714,518.1915,174.08
Shares Outstanding (M)422.69422.69422.69
Fair Value$32.85$34.35$35.90
Upside / Downside-85.44%-84.77%-84.08%

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