Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Oppein Home Group Inc. (603833.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Furnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$103.42 - $328.19$166.54
Multi-Stage$66.14 - $72.37$69.20
Blended Fair Value$117.87
Current Price$53.30
Upside121.14%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS40.53%55.72%3.002.152.001.370.870.550.680.010.010.19
YoY Growth--39.55%7.62%45.84%57.87%58.49%-20.03%8,365.02%-22.10%-94.65%442.58%
Dividend Yield--4.80%3.14%1.65%1.17%0.55%0.81%0.76%0.01%0.02%0.38%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,400.77
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)114.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,285.89
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)480.15300.10180.06
Cash Retained (M)2,285.892,285.892,285.89
(-) Cash Required (M)-480.15-300.10-180.06
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,805.741,985.792,105.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)615.96615.96615.96
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.933.223.42
LTM Dividend per Share0.190.190.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.933.223.42
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.123.413.61
WACC / Discount Rate8.68%8.68%8.68%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$103.42$166.54$328.19
Upside / Downside94.03%212.45%515.74%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,400.772,556.822,723.012,900.013,088.513,289.263,387.94
Payout Ratio4.79%21.83%38.87%55.91%72.96%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)114.88558.101,058.461,621.512,253.282,960.343,133.84

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.68%8.68%8.68%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)508.70513.53518.35
Year 2 PV (M)879.38896.13913.03
Year 3 PV (M)1,227.921,263.171,299.08
Year 4 PV (M)1,555.301,615.111,676.63
Year 5 PV (M)1,862.471,952.422,045.83
PV of Terminal Value (M)34,706.1036,382.4238,122.89
Equity Value (M)40,739.8742,622.7744,575.82
Shares Outstanding (M)615.96615.96615.96
Fair Value$66.14$69.20$72.37
Upside / Downside24.09%29.83%35.77%

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