Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Jiangsu Xinri E-Vehicle Co., Ltd. (603787.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - Recreational VehiclesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.26 - $3.43$2.81
Multi-Stage$2.97 - $3.25$3.11
Blended Fair Value$2.96
Current Price$12.10
Upside-75.55%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-1.67%11.85%0.200.440.040.220.110.220.110.000.160.13
YoY Growth---54.03%900.00%-80.00%108.33%-52.00%108.33%0.00%-100.00%25.00%100.00%
Dividend Yield--1.88%3.70%0.21%1.61%0.49%1.94%0.88%0.00%1.88%1.50%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)58.41
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)23.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)34.54
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)11.687.304.38
Cash Retained (M)34.5434.5434.54
(-) Cash Required (M)-11.68-7.30-4.38
(=) Excess Retained (M)22.8527.2330.16
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)232.25232.25232.25
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.120.13
LTM Dividend per Share0.100.100.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.120.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.200.220.23
WACC / Discount Rate9.80%9.80%9.80%
Growth Rate0.82%1.82%2.82%
Fair Value$2.26$2.81$3.43
Upside / Downside-81.34%-76.81%-71.69%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)58.4159.4760.5561.6662.7863.9265.83
Payout Ratio40.87%50.70%60.52%70.35%80.17%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)23.8830.1536.6543.3750.3357.5360.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.80%9.80%9.80%
Growth Rate0.82%1.82%2.82%
Year 1 PV (M)27.1927.4627.73
Year 2 PV (M)29.8130.4031.00
Year 3 PV (M)31.8132.7633.74
Year 4 PV (M)33.2934.6336.01
Year 5 PV (M)34.3136.0437.85
PV of Terminal Value (M)533.98560.99589.09
Equity Value (M)690.38722.29755.41
Shares Outstanding (M)232.25232.25232.25
Fair Value$2.97$3.11$3.25
Upside / Downside-75.43%-74.30%-73.12%

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