Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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KEBODA TECHNOLOGY Co., Ltd. (603786.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$338.39 - $398.68$373.62
Multi-Stage$285.04 - $312.82$298.67
Blended Fair Value$336.15
Current Price$104.58
Upside221.42%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.06%29.67%0.760.640.620.620.460.590.290.851.030.05
YoY Growth--17.67%3.60%0.01%36.04%-22.85%104.41%-65.81%-17.55%1,981.99%-12.43%
Dividend Yield--1.26%1.03%1.06%1.27%0.65%1.26%0.75%2.19%2.66%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)811.99
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)311.98
(=) Cash Retained (M)500.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)162.40101.5060.90
Cash Retained (M)500.00500.00500.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-162.40-101.50-60.90
(=) Excess Retained (M)337.61398.51439.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)405.04405.04405.04
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.830.981.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.770.770.77
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.830.981.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.601.751.85
WACC / Discount Rate-2.00%-2.00%-2.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$338.39$373.62$398.68
Upside / Downside223.57%257.26%281.22%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)811.99864.77920.98980.841,044.591,112.491,145.87
Payout Ratio38.42%48.74%59.05%69.37%79.68%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)311.98421.47543.87680.40832.381,001.241,059.93

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-2.00%-2.00%-2.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)426.02430.06434.10
Year 2 PV (M)555.68566.26576.95
Year 3 PV (M)702.69722.86743.41
Year 4 PV (M)868.93902.35936.72
Year 5 PV (M)1,056.501,107.531,160.51
PV of Terminal Value (M)111,842.53117,244.57122,853.36
Equity Value (M)115,452.36120,973.63126,705.05
Shares Outstanding (M)405.04405.04405.04
Fair Value$285.04$298.67$312.82
Upside / Downside172.55%185.59%199.12%

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