Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Loncin Motor Co., Ltd. (603766.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - Recreational VehiclesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$29.98 - $171.58$56.27
Multi-Stage$17.78 - $19.43$18.59
Blended Fair Value$37.43
Current Price$12.02
Upside211.39%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS37.69%2.67%0.100.080.070.090.120.020.420.210.080.09
YoY Growth--22.88%24.51%-26.32%-21.70%460.70%-94.99%98.84%157.38%-7.94%11.39%
Dividend Yield--0.90%1.28%1.31%2.11%3.61%0.63%7.80%3.12%1.45%1.81%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,799.38
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)825.46
(=) Cash Retained (M)973.92
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)359.88224.92134.95
Cash Retained (M)973.92973.92973.92
(-) Cash Required (M)-359.88-224.92-134.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)614.04749.00838.97
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,085.692,085.692,085.69
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.290.360.40
LTM Dividend per Share0.400.400.40
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.290.360.40
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.690.750.80
WACC / Discount Rate7.93%7.93%7.93%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$29.98$56.27$171.58
Upside / Downside149.41%368.12%1,327.42%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,799.381,916.342,040.912,173.562,314.852,465.312,539.27
Payout Ratio45.87%54.70%63.52%72.35%81.17%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)825.461,048.241,296.481,572.571,879.082,218.782,348.83

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.93%7.93%7.93%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)962.11971.23980.35
Year 2 PV (M)1,092.191,112.991,133.99
Year 3 PV (M)1,215.931,250.831,286.40
Year 4 PV (M)1,333.541,384.831,437.57
Year 5 PV (M)1,445.251,515.051,587.53
PV of Terminal Value (M)31,041.1232,540.4234,097.10
Equity Value (M)37,090.1438,775.3540,522.95
Shares Outstanding (M)2,085.692,085.692,085.69
Fair Value$17.78$18.59$19.43
Upside / Downside47.95%54.67%61.64%

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