Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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TKD Science and Technology Co.,Ltd. (603738.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SemiconductorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.46 - $19.30$10.80
Multi-Stage$2.35 - $2.57$2.46
Blended Fair Value$6.63
Current Price$15.66
Upside-57.68%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS16.55%9.63%0.080.150.190.180.030.040.070.050.040.04
YoY Growth---47.39%-22.64%5.24%426.84%-4.69%-45.21%22.20%33.35%9.21%19.55%
Dividend Yield--0.50%1.06%1.01%1.01%0.31%0.28%0.75%0.53%0.30%0.75%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)38.18
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)30.76
(=) Cash Retained (M)7.43
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7.644.772.86
Cash Retained (M)7.437.437.43
(-) Cash Required (M)-7.64-4.77-2.86
(=) Excess Retained (M)-0.212.664.56
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)393.38393.38393.38
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.010.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.080.080.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.010.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.080.080.09
WACC / Discount Rate7.34%7.34%7.34%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$4.46$10.80$19.30
Upside / Downside-71.53%-31.06%23.27%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)38.1840.6743.3146.1349.1252.3253.89
Payout Ratio80.55%82.44%84.33%86.22%88.11%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)30.7633.5236.5239.7743.2847.0849.84

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.34%7.34%7.34%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)30.9431.2331.53
Year 2 PV (M)31.1131.7032.30
Year 3 PV (M)31.2632.1633.07
Year 4 PV (M)31.4032.6133.85
Year 5 PV (M)31.5233.0534.63
PV of Terminal Value (M)769.30806.46845.04
Equity Value (M)925.53967.201,010.41
Shares Outstanding (M)393.38393.38393.38
Fair Value$2.35$2.46$2.57
Upside / Downside-84.98%-84.30%-83.60%

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