Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sanxiang Advanced Materials Co., Ltd. (603663.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.42 - $7.41$4.89
Multi-Stage$2.56 - $2.80$2.68
Blended Fair Value$3.78
Current Price$28.70
Upside-86.82%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.30%10.89%0.100.090.070.070.060.060.050.030.000.04
YoY Growth--6.34%33.83%1.06%4.25%4.02%27.74%57.71%0.00%-100.00%6.11%
Dividend Yield--0.42%0.56%0.65%0.81%0.83%0.98%0.65%0.44%0.00%1.33%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)76.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)34.76
(=) Cash Retained (M)42.04
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)15.369.605.76
Cash Retained (M)42.0442.0442.04
(-) Cash Required (M)-15.36-9.60-5.76
(=) Excess Retained (M)26.6832.4436.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)433.12433.12433.12
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.070.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.080.080.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.070.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.140.160.16
WACC / Discount Rate9.88%9.88%9.88%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$3.42$4.89$7.41
Upside / Downside-88.10%-82.97%-74.19%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)76.8081.7987.1192.7798.80105.22108.38
Payout Ratio45.25%54.20%63.15%72.10%81.05%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)34.7644.3355.0166.8980.0894.70100.25

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.88%9.88%9.88%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)39.9740.3540.73
Year 2 PV (M)44.7145.5646.42
Year 3 PV (M)49.0150.4251.85
Year 4 PV (M)52.9054.9357.03
Year 5 PV (M)56.4059.1261.95
PV of Terminal Value (M)867.77909.69953.21
Equity Value (M)1,110.761,160.071,211.18
Shares Outstanding (M)433.12433.12433.12
Fair Value$2.56$2.68$2.80
Upside / Downside-91.06%-90.67%-90.26%

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