Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Keli Sensing Technology (Ningbo) Co.,Ltd. (603662.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$22.58 - $49.64$32.47
Multi-Stage$15.99 - $17.48$16.72
Blended Fair Value$24.59
Current Price$76.04
Upside-67.66%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS237.40%17.90%0.420.280.270.240.210.000.090.090.090.09
YoY Growth--50.44%2.47%13.92%12.00%22,129.71%-98.90%-0.41%-0.67%0.93%8.03%
Dividend Yield--0.64%0.88%1.51%1.48%1.39%0.01%0.72%0.72%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)323.97
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)13.63
(=) Cash Retained (M)310.34
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)64.7940.5024.30
Cash Retained (M)310.34310.34310.34
(-) Cash Required (M)-64.79-40.50-24.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)245.55269.84286.04
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)280.92280.92280.92
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.870.961.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.870.961.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.921.011.07
WACC / Discount Rate9.81%9.81%9.81%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$22.58$32.47$49.64
Upside / Downside-70.30%-57.30%-34.72%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)323.97345.03367.45391.34416.77443.86457.18
Payout Ratio4.21%21.37%38.52%55.68%72.84%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)13.6373.72141.56217.91303.58399.48422.89

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.81%9.81%9.81%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)66.5067.1367.76
Year 2 PV (M)115.20117.39119.61
Year 3 PV (M)159.98164.57169.25
Year 4 PV (M)201.06208.79216.74
Year 5 PV (M)238.67250.20262.17
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,710.073,889.264,075.32
Equity Value (M)4,491.474,697.344,910.85
Shares Outstanding (M)280.92280.92280.92
Fair Value$15.99$16.72$17.48
Upside / Downside-78.97%-78.01%-77.01%

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