Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Suli Co., Ltd. (603585.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$101.84 - $120.04$112.47
Multi-Stage$139.43 - $153.40$146.28
Blended Fair Value$129.38
Current Price$18.28
Upside607.76%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-12.70%22.35%0.280.580.340.280.560.560.390.310.000.02
YoY Growth---50.81%69.78%21.64%-50.00%-0.20%44.29%25.00%0.00%-100.00%-58.25%
Dividend Yield--1.97%4.75%1.88%1.61%3.61%2.84%1.48%1.28%0.00%0.07%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)119.78
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)42.77
(=) Cash Retained (M)77.02
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)23.9614.978.98
Cash Retained (M)77.0277.0277.02
(-) Cash Required (M)-23.96-14.97-8.98
(=) Excess Retained (M)53.0662.0468.03
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)193.75193.75193.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.270.320.35
LTM Dividend per Share0.220.220.22
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.270.320.35
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.490.540.57
WACC / Discount Rate-12.86%-12.86%-12.86%
Growth Rate2.96%3.96%4.96%
Fair Value$101.84$112.47$120.04
Upside / Downside457.14%515.29%556.70%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)119.78124.52129.46134.58139.91145.45149.81
Payout Ratio35.70%46.56%57.42%68.28%79.14%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)42.7757.9874.3491.89110.73130.91138.58

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-12.86%-12.86%-12.86%
Growth Rate2.96%3.96%4.96%
Year 1 PV (M)65.9066.5467.18
Year 2 PV (M)96.0397.9099.79
Year 3 PV (M)134.92138.89142.94
Year 4 PV (M)184.78192.06199.56
Year 5 PV (M)248.29260.59273.36
PV of Terminal Value (M)26,284.4227,585.8928,938.42
Equity Value (M)27,014.3428,341.8829,721.26
Shares Outstanding (M)193.75193.75193.75
Fair Value$139.43$146.28$153.40
Upside / Downside662.74%700.23%739.17%

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