Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Jiangsu Shemar Electric Co.,Ltd (603530.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$147.90 - $174.26$163.30
Multi-Stage$101.54 - $111.41$106.39
Blended Fair Value$134.85
Current Price$32.98
Upside308.87%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS523.75%0.00%0.260.050.110.120.210.000.010.040.010.00
YoY Growth--417.01%-51.71%-13.97%-40.91%743,791.36%-99.64%-80.23%450.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.93%0.27%0.70%0.94%1.11%0.00%0.09%0.45%0.08%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)372.15
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)201.27
(=) Cash Retained (M)170.88
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)74.4346.5227.91
Cash Retained (M)170.88170.88170.88
(-) Cash Required (M)-74.43-46.52-27.91
(=) Excess Retained (M)96.45124.36142.97
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)424.73424.73424.73
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.230.290.34
LTM Dividend per Share0.470.470.47
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.230.290.34
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.700.770.81
WACC / Discount Rate2.20%2.20%2.20%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$147.90$163.30$174.26
Upside / Downside348.47%395.16%428.37%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)372.15396.34422.11449.54478.76509.88525.18
Payout Ratio54.08%61.27%68.45%75.63%82.82%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)201.27242.83288.93340.00396.50458.90485.79

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate2.20%2.20%2.20%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)235.37237.61239.84
Year 2 PV (M)271.47276.64281.86
Year 3 PV (M)309.66318.55327.61
Year 4 PV (M)350.03363.49377.34
Year 5 PV (M)392.69411.65431.35
PV of Terminal Value (M)41,570.1443,577.9945,662.69
Equity Value (M)43,129.3645,185.9347,320.68
Shares Outstanding (M)424.73424.73424.73
Fair Value$101.54$106.39$111.41
Upside / Downside207.90%222.58%237.82%

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