Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Leshan Giantstar Farming&Husbandry Corporation Limited (603477.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - Footwear & AccessoriesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$60.04 - $142.87$133.89
Multi-Stage$21.11 - $23.10$22.08
Blended Fair Value$77.99
Current Price$20.29
Upside284.36%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS31.97%35.89%0.230.240.250.190.070.060.070.030.030.03
YoY Growth---6.47%-4.10%35.54%150.58%31.37%-19.45%167.31%3.62%-18.11%193.62%
Dividend Yield--1.17%0.66%0.84%0.73%0.47%0.46%0.72%0.19%0.32%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)366.27
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)166.83
(=) Cash Retained (M)199.44
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)73.2545.7827.47
Cash Retained (M)199.44199.44199.44
(-) Cash Required (M)-73.25-45.78-27.47
(=) Excess Retained (M)126.18153.66171.97
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)509.85509.85509.85
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.250.300.34
LTM Dividend per Share0.330.330.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.250.300.34
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.570.630.66
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$60.04$133.89$142.87
Upside / Downside195.91%559.88%604.14%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)366.27390.08415.43442.44471.20501.82516.88
Payout Ratio45.55%54.44%63.33%72.22%81.11%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)166.83212.35263.09319.53382.19451.64478.11

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)197.50199.38201.25
Year 2 PV (M)227.58231.91236.29
Year 3 PV (M)257.07264.45271.96
Year 4 PV (M)285.97296.97308.28
Year 5 PV (M)314.31329.49345.25
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,479.939,937.8110,413.22
Equity Value (M)10,762.3611,260.0111,776.26
Shares Outstanding (M)509.85509.85509.85
Fair Value$21.11$22.08$23.10
Upside / Downside4.04%8.85%13.84%

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