Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Guangzhou Tongda Auto Electric Co., Ltd. (603390.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.14 - $1.62$1.38
Multi-Stage$1.71 - $1.88$1.80
Blended Fair Value$1.59
Current Price$12.65
Upside-87.45%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS79.88%0.00%0.080.010.010.110.100.000.080.020.040.01
YoY Growth--1,405.18%-39.66%-91.92%4.84%2,346.21%-94.87%401.91%-61.91%272.41%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.77%0.06%0.12%1.36%1.02%0.03%0.56%0.11%0.29%0.08%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)63.79
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)14.17
(=) Cash Retained (M)49.62
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)12.767.974.78
Cash Retained (M)49.6249.6249.62
(-) Cash Required (M)-12.76-7.97-4.78
(=) Excess Retained (M)36.8641.6444.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)364.26364.26364.26
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.110.12
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.110.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.140.150.16
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$1.14$1.38$1.62
Upside / Downside-90.96%-89.10%-87.19%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)63.7963.1562.5261.8961.2860.6662.48
Payout Ratio22.22%35.77%49.33%62.89%76.44%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)14.1722.5930.8438.9246.8454.6057.80

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)20.3320.5420.74
Year 2 PV (M)24.9825.4926.01
Year 3 PV (M)28.3729.2430.14
Year 4 PV (M)30.7231.9933.31
Year 5 PV (M)32.2233.9035.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)487.31512.69539.11
Equity Value (M)623.93653.85684.95
Shares Outstanding (M)364.26364.26364.26
Fair Value$1.71$1.80$1.88
Upside / Downside-86.46%-85.81%-85.14%

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