Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Zhejiang Goldensea Hi-Tech Co., Ltd (603311.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - Pollution & Treatment ControlsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.70 - $3.89$3.28
Multi-Stage$5.09 - $5.60$5.34
Blended Fair Value$4.31
Current Price$11.31
Upside-61.88%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-9.90%-0.94%0.100.150.140.210.180.170.160.110.060.08
YoY Growth---33.96%8.28%-32.51%17.07%5.09%4.21%47.22%69.26%-19.55%-26.64%
Dividend Yield--1.00%1.69%1.04%1.84%1.54%1.48%1.35%0.76%0.26%0.36%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)90.72
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)34.39
(=) Cash Retained (M)56.33
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)18.1411.346.80
Cash Retained (M)56.3356.3356.33
(-) Cash Required (M)-18.14-11.34-6.80
(=) Excess Retained (M)38.1944.9949.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)234.38234.38234.38
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.160.190.21
LTM Dividend per Share0.150.150.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.160.190.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.310.340.36
WACC / Discount Rate8.18%8.18%8.18%
Growth Rate-2.94%-1.94%-0.94%
Fair Value$2.70$3.28$3.89
Upside / Downside-76.09%-70.96%-65.59%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)90.7288.9787.2485.5583.8982.2784.73
Payout Ratio37.91%48.32%58.74%69.16%79.58%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)34.3942.9951.2559.1766.7674.0478.38

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.18%8.18%8.18%
Growth Rate-2.94%-1.94%-0.94%
Year 1 PV (M)39.3439.7440.15
Year 2 PV (M)42.9143.8044.69
Year 3 PV (M)45.3346.7448.19
Year 4 PV (M)46.8048.7650.77
Year 5 PV (M)47.4949.9852.58
PV of Terminal Value (M)971.371,022.461,075.66
Equity Value (M)1,193.231,251.481,312.05
Shares Outstanding (M)234.38234.38234.38
Fair Value$5.09$5.34$5.60
Upside / Downside-54.99%-52.79%-50.51%

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