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Definitive Analysis

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Zhejiang Haikong Nanke Huatie Digital Technology Co., Ltd. Class A (603300.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Credit ServicesSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$20.72 - $66.03$61.88
Multi-Stage$8.64 - $9.46$9.04
Blended Fair Value$35.46
Current Price$9.68
Upside266.34%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS13.72%17.41%0.070.040.100.040.040.040.040.030.030.01
YoY Growth--62.99%-55.29%145.15%2.44%3.92%-14.51%41.79%22.27%110.23%-16.00%
Dividend Yield--0.68%0.70%1.60%0.67%0.85%1.08%1.57%1.18%0.49%0.22%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)647.70
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)79.23
(=) Cash Retained (M)568.48
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)129.5480.9648.58
Cash Retained (M)568.48568.48568.48
(-) Cash Required (M)-129.54-80.96-48.58
(=) Excess Retained (M)438.94487.52519.90
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,950.771,950.771,950.77
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.230.250.27
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.230.250.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.270.290.31
WACC / Discount Rate6.85%6.85%6.85%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$20.72$61.88$66.03
Upside / Downside114.03%539.27%582.14%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)647.70689.81734.64782.39833.25887.41914.03
Payout Ratio12.23%27.79%43.34%58.89%74.45%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)79.23191.67318.39460.77620.32798.67845.48

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.85%6.85%6.85%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)177.69179.37181.06
Year 2 PV (M)273.65278.86284.12
Year 3 PV (M)367.15377.69388.43
Year 4 PV (M)458.24475.86493.99
Year 5 PV (M)546.96573.38600.81
PV of Terminal Value (M)15,029.3015,755.2216,508.92
Equity Value (M)16,852.9817,640.3818,457.32
Shares Outstanding (M)1,950.771,950.771,950.77
Fair Value$8.64$9.04$9.46
Upside / Downside-10.75%-6.58%-2.26%

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