Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Grace Fabric Technology Co.,Ltd. (603256.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.54 - $2.28$1.90
Multi-Stage$2.74 - $3.02$2.88
Blended Fair Value$2.39
Current Price$34.87
Upside-93.16%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-18.52%-6.82%0.040.080.150.130.100.120.110.050.090.08
YoY Growth---42.02%-51.05%19.88%25.15%-15.62%9.20%102.68%-35.69%5.58%-8.55%
Dividend Yield--0.51%0.95%1.95%1.68%1.08%1.04%1.75%0.86%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)153.88
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)22.31
(=) Cash Retained (M)131.57
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)30.7819.2411.54
Cash Retained (M)131.57131.57131.57
(-) Cash Required (M)-30.78-19.24-11.54
(=) Excess Retained (M)100.80112.34120.03
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)797.33797.33797.33
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.130.140.15
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.130.140.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.150.170.18
WACC / Discount Rate7.91%7.91%7.91%
Growth Rate-1.92%-0.92%0.08%
Fair Value$1.54$1.90$2.28
Upside / Downside-95.58%-94.56%-93.45%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)153.88152.47151.07149.69148.32146.96151.36
Payout Ratio14.50%29.60%44.70%59.80%74.90%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)22.3145.1367.5389.51111.09132.26140.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.91%7.91%7.91%
Growth Rate-1.92%-0.92%0.08%
Year 1 PV (M)41.4041.8242.24
Year 2 PV (M)56.8357.9959.17
Year 3 PV (M)69.1071.2473.42
Year 4 PV (M)78.6781.9385.28
Year 5 PV (M)85.9290.3995.05
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,852.661,949.052,049.41
Equity Value (M)2,184.582,292.422,404.57
Shares Outstanding (M)797.33797.33797.33
Fair Value$2.74$2.88$3.02
Upside / Downside-92.14%-91.75%-91.35%

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