Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Anhui Jiuhuashan Tourism Development Co., Ltd. (603199.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Travel ServicesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$111.06 - $382.26$358.23
Multi-Stage$51.69 - $56.57$54.09
Blended Fair Value$206.16
Current Price$36.12
Upside470.76%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS35.97%11.59%0.790.000.170.150.220.170.150.140.130.17
YoY Growth--0.00%-100.00%13.33%-31.82%29.41%13.33%7.14%7.69%-22.39%-36.50%
Dividend Yield--2.21%0.00%0.59%0.58%1.02%0.83%0.65%0.52%0.35%0.45%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)213.12
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)75.26
(=) Cash Retained (M)137.86
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)42.6226.6415.98
Cash Retained (M)137.86137.86137.86
(-) Cash Required (M)-42.62-26.64-15.98
(=) Excess Retained (M)95.24111.22121.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)110.68110.68110.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.861.001.10
LTM Dividend per Share0.680.680.68
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.861.001.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.541.681.78
WACC / Discount Rate6.77%6.77%6.77%
Growth Rate5.31%6.31%7.31%
Fair Value$111.06$358.23$382.26
Upside / Downside207.48%891.78%958.32%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)213.12226.57240.86256.06272.22289.39298.08
Payout Ratio35.31%46.25%57.19%68.13%79.06%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)75.26104.79137.75174.44215.22260.45275.72

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.77%6.77%6.77%
Growth Rate5.31%6.31%7.31%
Year 1 PV (M)97.2298.1599.07
Year 2 PV (M)118.57120.83123.12
Year 3 PV (M)139.31143.32147.40
Year 4 PV (M)159.47165.61171.93
Year 5 PV (M)179.04187.71196.70
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,027.385,270.655,523.25
Equity Value (M)5,720.995,986.276,261.47
Shares Outstanding (M)110.68110.68110.68
Fair Value$51.69$54.09$56.57
Upside / Downside43.10%49.74%56.62%

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