Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corporation (603197.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$97.00 - $237.17$222.26
Multi-Stage$35.13 - $38.41$36.74
Blended Fair Value$129.50
Current Price$44.66
Upside189.97%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS46.88%51.60%1.330.310.200.450.240.190.280.280.230.04
YoY Growth--334.60%55.85%-56.03%84.74%24.24%-30.96%1.88%21.22%450.00%100.00%
Dividend Yield--3.03%0.65%0.49%1.09%1.04%0.75%1.05%0.88%0.97%0.18%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)251.96
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)154.67
(=) Cash Retained (M)97.29
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)50.3931.5018.90
Cash Retained (M)97.2997.2997.29
(-) Cash Required (M)-50.39-31.50-18.90
(=) Excess Retained (M)46.9065.7978.39
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)211.28211.28211.28
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.220.310.37
LTM Dividend per Share0.730.730.73
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.220.310.37
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.951.041.10
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$97.00$222.26$237.17
Upside / Downside117.20%397.68%431.06%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)251.96268.34285.78304.36324.14345.21355.57
Payout Ratio61.39%67.11%72.83%78.56%84.28%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)154.67180.08208.14239.09273.18310.69328.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)167.44169.03170.62
Year 2 PV (M)179.95183.38186.84
Year 3 PV (M)192.20197.72203.34
Year 4 PV (M)204.19212.05220.12
Year 5 PV (M)215.94226.37237.19
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,461.706,773.807,097.85
Equity Value (M)7,421.437,762.348,115.97
Shares Outstanding (M)211.28211.28211.28
Fair Value$35.13$36.74$38.41
Upside / Downside-21.35%-17.73%-13.99%

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