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Definitive Analysis

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Bohai Ferry Group Co., Ltd. (603167.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Marine ShippingSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.85 - $26.59$17.16
Multi-Stage$15.38 - $16.87$16.11
Blended Fair Value$16.64
Current Price$9.42
Upside76.60%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.29%18.10%0.810.160.200.180.480.650.460.280.180.22
YoY Growth--397.25%-17.67%10.54%-63.00%-26.31%42.79%61.51%56.25%-16.57%42.32%
Dividend Yield--9.54%1.83%2.69%2.35%5.55%8.36%4.30%2.74%1.67%2.27%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)288.89
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)104.19
(=) Cash Retained (M)184.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)57.7836.1121.67
Cash Retained (M)184.70184.70184.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-57.78-36.11-21.67
(=) Excess Retained (M)126.92148.59163.03
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)473.38473.38473.38
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.270.310.34
LTM Dividend per Share0.220.220.22
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.270.310.34
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.490.530.56
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate2.29%3.29%4.29%
Fair Value$11.85$17.16$26.59
Upside / Downside25.81%82.18%182.28%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)288.89298.41308.24318.39328.87339.70349.89
Payout Ratio36.07%46.85%57.64%68.43%79.21%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)104.19139.81177.67217.86260.51305.73323.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate2.29%3.29%4.29%
Year 1 PV (M)130.00131.27132.54
Year 2 PV (M)153.60156.62159.67
Year 3 PV (M)175.13180.32185.61
Year 4 PV (M)194.72202.44210.40
Year 5 PV (M)212.48223.07234.08
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,413.006,732.657,064.92
Equity Value (M)7,278.937,626.377,987.21
Shares Outstanding (M)473.38473.38473.38
Fair Value$15.38$16.11$16.87
Upside / Downside63.23%71.02%79.12%

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