Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.,Ltd (603136.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Travel LodgingSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.33 - $9.71$7.15
Multi-Stage$9.59 - $10.52$10.05
Blended Fair Value$8.60
Current Price$11.83
Upside-27.32%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.79%2.60%0.380.010.010.160.310.240.140.070.200.20
YoY Growth--4,652.74%-28.01%-92.99%-49.49%31.72%68.34%89.39%-61.94%-0.18%-33.14%
Dividend Yield--3.25%0.06%0.05%1.12%2.08%2.30%1.06%0.59%2.11%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)102.49
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)65.83
(=) Cash Retained (M)36.66
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)20.5012.817.69
Cash Retained (M)36.6636.6636.66
(-) Cash Required (M)-20.50-12.81-7.69
(=) Excess Retained (M)16.1623.8528.97
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)272.43272.43272.43
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.090.11
LTM Dividend per Share0.240.240.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.090.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.300.330.35
WACC / Discount Rate6.27%6.27%6.27%
Growth Rate0.60%1.60%2.60%
Fair Value$5.33$7.15$9.71
Upside / Downside-54.92%-39.56%-17.93%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)102.49104.13105.79107.48109.20110.94114.27
Payout Ratio64.23%69.39%74.54%79.69%84.85%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)65.8372.2578.8685.6592.6599.85105.70

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.27%6.27%6.27%
Growth Rate0.60%1.60%2.60%
Year 1 PV (M)67.3167.9868.65
Year 2 PV (M)68.4569.8271.20
Year 3 PV (M)69.2771.3673.49
Year 4 PV (M)69.8172.6375.53
Year 5 PV (M)70.1073.6577.35
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,266.342,381.252,500.77
Equity Value (M)2,611.302,736.702,867.00
Shares Outstanding (M)272.43272.43272.43
Fair Value$9.59$10.05$10.52
Upside / Downside-18.97%-15.08%-11.04%

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