Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Hengdian Entertainment Co.,LTD (603103.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: EntertainmentSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.70 - $0.95$0.83
Multi-Stage$3.11 - $3.45$3.28
Blended Fair Value$2.05
Current Price$18.36
Upside-88.83%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-9.25%7.46%0.120.000.000.010.190.190.170.140.150.04
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%-100.00%-95.80%-2.61%15.88%18.65%-4.24%243.72%-26.30%
Dividend Yield--0.89%0.00%0.00%0.07%1.18%1.43%0.92%0.62%0.93%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)92.24
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)76.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)16.13
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)18.4511.536.92
Cash Retained (M)16.1316.1316.13
(-) Cash Required (M)-18.45-11.53-6.92
(=) Excess Retained (M)-2.314.609.22
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)636.61636.61636.61
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.010.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.120.120.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.010.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.120.130.13
WACC / Discount Rate5.37%5.37%5.37%
Growth Rate-9.64%-8.64%-7.64%
Fair Value$0.70$0.83$0.95
Upside / Downside-96.20%-95.50%-94.82%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)92.2484.2676.9870.3364.2558.6960.45
Payout Ratio82.51%84.01%85.51%87.00%88.50%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)76.1070.7965.8261.1956.8652.8255.92

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.37%5.37%5.37%
Growth Rate-9.64%-8.64%-7.64%
Year 1 PV (M)66.4567.1867.92
Year 2 PV (M)58.0059.2960.59
Year 3 PV (M)50.6152.3154.04
Year 4 PV (M)44.1446.1348.19
Year 5 PV (M)38.5040.6742.95
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,722.621,820.081,921.90
Equity Value (M)1,980.312,085.662,195.59
Shares Outstanding (M)636.61636.61636.61
Fair Value$3.11$3.28$3.45
Upside / Downside-83.06%-82.16%-81.22%

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