Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Center International Group Co.,Ltd. (603098.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.90 - $1.24$1.07
Multi-Stage$1.46 - $1.61$1.54
Blended Fair Value$1.30
Current Price$14.36
Upside-90.91%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-9.31%15.00%0.090.110.110.150.180.150.170.250.200.15
YoY Growth---19.48%4.10%-26.52%-17.49%20.74%-13.88%-31.04%25.22%31.71%573.15%
Dividend Yield--0.85%1.11%0.41%0.36%0.96%1.69%1.22%1.77%0.98%1.37%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)95.87
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)8.76
(=) Cash Retained (M)87.11
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)19.1711.987.19
Cash Retained (M)87.1187.1187.11
(-) Cash Required (M)-19.17-11.98-7.19
(=) Excess Retained (M)67.9475.1379.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)553.50553.50553.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.120.140.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.120.140.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.140.150.16
WACC / Discount Rate9.98%9.98%9.98%
Growth Rate-4.64%-3.64%-2.64%
Fair Value$0.90$1.07$1.24
Upside / Downside-93.71%-92.53%-91.39%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)95.8792.3789.0185.7782.6579.6482.03
Payout Ratio9.13%25.31%41.48%57.65%73.83%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)8.7623.3836.9249.4561.0171.6775.87

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.98%9.98%9.98%
Growth Rate-4.64%-3.64%-2.64%
Year 1 PV (M)21.0321.2621.48
Year 2 PV (M)29.8930.5231.16
Year 3 PV (M)36.0337.1738.34
Year 4 PV (M)40.0041.7143.46
Year 5 PV (M)42.2844.5446.90
PV of Terminal Value (M)641.32675.65711.45
Equity Value (M)810.55850.86892.80
Shares Outstanding (M)553.50553.50553.50
Fair Value$1.46$1.54$1.61
Upside / Downside-89.80%-89.30%-88.77%

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