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Definitive Analysis

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China Testing & Certification International Group Co.,Ltd. (603060.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Consulting ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$14.92 - $42.92$40.22
Multi-Stage$6.05 - $6.62$6.33
Blended Fair Value$23.27
Current Price$6.40
Upside263.66%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS17.41%18.95%0.160.150.090.090.080.070.060.040.150.03
YoY Growth--6.45%61.05%0.63%20.90%6.99%24.19%30.65%-70.74%435.24%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.35%1.98%0.81%0.86%0.57%0.93%0.78%0.73%1.73%0.72%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)173.58
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)114.33
(=) Cash Retained (M)59.25
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)34.7221.7013.02
Cash Retained (M)59.2559.2559.25
(-) Cash Required (M)-34.72-21.70-13.02
(=) Excess Retained (M)24.5337.5546.23
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)804.39804.39804.39
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.050.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.140.140.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.050.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.170.190.20
WACC / Discount Rate6.72%6.72%6.72%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$14.92$40.22$42.92
Upside / Downside133.10%528.41%570.56%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)173.58184.86196.88209.68223.31237.82244.96
Payout Ratio65.87%70.69%75.52%80.35%85.17%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)114.33130.69148.68168.47190.20214.04226.58

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.72%6.72%6.72%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)121.31122.46123.61
Year 2 PV (M)128.11130.55133.01
Year 3 PV (M)134.73138.60142.54
Year 4 PV (M)141.19146.62152.21
Year 5 PV (M)147.49154.61162.01
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,196.194,398.874,609.30
Equity Value (M)4,869.025,091.715,322.68
Shares Outstanding (M)804.39804.39804.39
Fair Value$6.05$6.33$6.62
Upside / Downside-5.42%-1.10%3.39%

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