Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Hainan Mining Co., Ltd. (601969.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SteelSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$16.97 - $47.70$44.70
Multi-Stage$6.74 - $7.37$7.05
Blended Fair Value$25.88
Current Price$8.59
Upside201.24%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS40.49%-10.23%0.160.100.030.100.040.030.050.000.030.14
YoY Growth--61.52%197.76%-67.14%156.50%35.02%-35.13%0.00%-100.00%-80.00%-70.53%
Dividend Yield--2.33%1.50%0.46%1.17%0.63%0.65%0.83%0.00%0.25%1.16%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)472.38
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)269.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)202.68
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)94.4859.0535.43
Cash Retained (M)202.68202.68202.68
(-) Cash Required (M)-94.48-59.05-35.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)108.20143.63167.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,969.391,969.391,969.39
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.070.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.140.140.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.070.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.190.210.22
WACC / Discount Rate6.69%6.69%6.69%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$16.97$44.70$47.70
Upside / Downside97.53%420.42%455.32%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)472.38503.08535.78570.61607.70647.20666.62
Payout Ratio57.09%63.68%70.26%76.84%83.42%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)269.70320.34376.42438.44506.94582.48616.62

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.69%6.69%6.69%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)297.42300.24303.06
Year 2 PV (M)324.50330.68336.91
Year 3 PV (M)350.92361.00371.26
Year 4 PV (M)376.72391.21406.11
Year 5 PV (M)401.90421.31441.46
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,520.1312,076.5612,654.28
Equity Value (M)13,271.5913,880.9914,513.09
Shares Outstanding (M)1,969.391,969.391,969.39
Fair Value$6.74$7.05$7.37
Upside / Downside-21.55%-17.95%-14.21%

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