Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Zijin Mining Group Company Limited (601899.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: GoldSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$23.18 - $40.50$30.58
Multi-Stage$18.44 - $20.11$19.26
Blended Fair Value$24.92
Current Price$29.44
Upside-15.36%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS23.50%18.33%0.500.450.320.190.170.170.140.110.100.10
YoY Growth--10.55%40.54%68.02%8.92%1.04%24.25%26.45%8.02%5.68%4.45%
Dividend Yield--2.73%2.65%2.57%1.67%1.81%4.67%3.80%2.52%3.00%2.93%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)45,556.77
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)10,805.87
(=) Cash Retained (M)34,750.89
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)9,111.355,694.603,416.76
Cash Retained (M)34,750.8934,750.8934,750.89
(-) Cash Required (M)-9,111.35-5,694.60-3,416.76
(=) Excess Retained (M)25,639.5429,056.3031,334.14
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)27,000.3927,000.3927,000.39
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.951.081.16
LTM Dividend per Share0.400.400.40
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.951.081.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.351.481.56
WACC / Discount Rate11.64%11.64%11.64%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$23.18$30.58$40.50
Upside / Downside-21.25%3.86%37.58%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)45,556.7748,517.9551,671.6255,030.2858,607.2562,416.7264,289.22
Payout Ratio23.72%36.98%50.23%63.49%76.74%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)10,805.8717,939.8325,955.5634,937.5344,977.4956,175.0459,467.53

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate11.64%11.64%11.64%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)15,918.1616,069.0416,219.93
Year 2 PV (M)20,435.2120,824.4521,217.35
Year 3 PV (M)24,407.0625,107.7025,821.62
Year 4 PV (M)27,880.0128,952.2030,055.02
Year 5 PV (M)30,896.9432,389.2833,938.73
PV of Terminal Value (M)378,466.14396,746.19415,725.87
Equity Value (M)498,003.52520,088.86542,978.51
Shares Outstanding (M)27,000.3927,000.3927,000.39
Fair Value$18.44$19.26$20.11
Upside / Downside-37.35%-34.57%-31.69%

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