Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Asian Star Anchor Chain Co., Ltd. Jiangsu (601890.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - DistributionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.26 - $7.58$5.66
Multi-Stage$7.13 - $7.83$7.47
Blended Fair Value$6.56
Current Price$10.15
Upside-35.33%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.120.060.050.040.030.000.030.030.070.04
YoY Growth--90.23%26.16%22.56%37.49%0.00%-100.00%-3.07%-56.12%92.82%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.26%0.76%0.54%0.56%0.57%0.00%0.40%0.50%0.69%0.35%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)300.06
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)107.99
(=) Cash Retained (M)192.07
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)60.0137.5122.50
Cash Retained (M)192.07192.07192.07
(-) Cash Required (M)-60.01-37.51-22.50
(=) Excess Retained (M)132.06154.56169.56
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)959.48959.48959.48
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.140.160.18
LTM Dividend per Share0.110.110.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.140.160.18
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.250.270.29
WACC / Discount Rate6.59%6.59%6.59%
Growth Rate0.67%1.67%2.67%
Fair Value$4.26$5.66$7.58
Upside / Downside-58.08%-44.28%-25.33%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)300.06305.07310.16315.34320.61325.96335.74
Payout Ratio35.99%46.79%57.59%68.40%79.20%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)107.99142.75178.63215.68253.91293.36310.56

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.59%6.59%6.59%
Growth Rate0.67%1.67%2.67%
Year 1 PV (M)132.61133.92135.24
Year 2 PV (M)154.15157.23160.34
Year 3 PV (M)172.90178.11183.41
Year 4 PV (M)189.09196.72204.57
Year 5 PV (M)202.95213.23223.93
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,987.006,290.326,605.82
Equity Value (M)6,838.707,169.537,513.31
Shares Outstanding (M)959.48959.48959.48
Fair Value$7.13$7.47$7.83
Upside / Downside-29.78%-26.38%-22.85%

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