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Definitive Analysis

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Ningbo Construction Co., Ltd. (601789.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.94 - $7.74$5.44
Multi-Stage$6.20 - $6.80$6.49
Blended Fair Value$5.96
Current Price$5.69
Upside4.82%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.43%5.37%0.330.300.310.090.240.280.270.250.210.26
YoY Growth--8.07%-2.85%257.34%-63.31%-14.00%2.11%7.93%19.77%-20.18%35.24%
Dividend Yield--5.80%7.05%5.78%1.19%6.00%6.67%5.66%6.23%3.04%5.08%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)271.17
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)213.27
(=) Cash Retained (M)57.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)54.2333.9020.34
Cash Retained (M)57.9057.9057.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-54.23-33.90-20.34
(=) Excess Retained (M)3.6724.0037.56
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,120.341,120.341,120.34
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.020.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.190.190.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.020.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.190.210.22
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate1.43%2.43%3.43%
Fair Value$3.94$5.44$7.74
Upside / Downside-30.83%-4.46%36.09%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)271.17277.76284.50291.41298.49305.75314.92
Payout Ratio78.65%80.92%83.19%85.46%87.73%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)213.27224.76236.68249.04261.87275.17291.30

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate1.43%2.43%3.43%
Year 1 PV (M)209.14211.20213.26
Year 2 PV (M)204.92208.98213.08
Year 3 PV (M)200.64206.64212.75
Year 4 PV (M)196.31204.17212.26
Year 5 PV (M)191.95201.60211.64
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,941.946,240.696,551.33
Equity Value (M)6,944.917,273.277,614.31
Shares Outstanding (M)1,120.341,120.341,120.34
Fair Value$6.20$6.49$6.80
Upside / Downside8.94%14.10%19.45%

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